Analysis of The Effect of Tax Revenue Realization and Diversion of Soe Dividends on The Level of Budget Deficit in Indonesia (Period 2019–2024

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of tax revenue realization and dividend diversion of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) on the level of the State Budget (APBN) deficit in Indonesia during the 2019–2024 period. The budget deficit is one of the main indicators in assessing a country's fiscal health, so optimal management of state revenue sources is necessary. This study uses a quantitative approach with a multiple linear regression analysis method to examine the relationship between the independent variables, namely tax revenue and SOE dividends, on the dependent variable, namely the budget deficit. The data used are secondary data obtained from official government reports, including the Ministry of Finance and related statistical publications. The results show that tax revenue realization has a negative and significant effect on the level of the budget deficit, meaning that an increase in tax revenue can reduce the deficit substantially. Meanwhile, SOE dividends also show a negative effect on the budget deficit, although their contribution is relatively smaller than tax revenue. This indicates that SOE dividends play a role as a complementary source of revenue in the state revenue structure. Simultaneously, both variables have a significant effect on the budget deficit, so optimizing both is key to maintaining fiscal stability. This research provides implications that the government needs to increase the effectiveness of tax policies and strengthen the performance of state-owned enterprises to support national fiscal sustainability.